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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.