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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."